Technological unemployment in terms of global labor market imbalances: bibliometric analysis

Autores

  • Souheyla Cherif
  • Siham Gourida

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.34140/bjbv7n1-039

Palavras-chave:

technological unemployment, labor market imbalances, Industry 4.0, performance analysis, bibliometric analysis

Resumo

The current society, known as the supersmart society or Society 5.0, emerged in response to the Fourth Industrial Revolution, also known as Industry 4.0 (I4.0). This revolution arose with the development of technologies such as the Internet of Things (IoT), Artificial Intelligence (AI), Machine Learning (ML), and Big Data Analytics (BDA). According to the Future of Jobs Report 2023, the most significant macro trend driving business transformation is the increased adoption of frontier technologies, with an 86.2% rate. I4.0 has reshaped production and manufacturing, transforming firms into smart factories. One consequence of I4.0 is technological unemployment (TU).

This paper evaluates the literature on I4.0 and TU from 2015 to 2024, focusing on labor market imbalances (LMI). Through bibliometric analysis, it assesses publication and citation performance across authors, institutions, countries, and journals. Additionally, it examines bibliometric citation trends, including cited references.

To achieve this, we adopted a quantitative approach and a confirmatory-explicative research method to analyze TU within I4.0 transformations and its impact on LMI. Bibliometric analysis was used to identify data patterns, trends, and relationships in the literature. Our findings reveal significant trends, notably job polarization, income inequality, and TU. However, the effects of I4.0 on employment are not universally negative; in some cases, technological investments create new professions and job opportunities. Occupations requiring human judgment, decision-making, creativity, and innovation show resilience to technological advancements.

Referências

Acemoglu, D., & Autor, D. (2011). Skills, Tasks, and Technologies: Implications for Employment and Earnings. In Handbook of Labor Economics (Vol. 4, pp. 1043–1171). Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-7218(11)02410-5

Acemoglu, D., & Restrepo, P. (2017). Secular Stagnation? The Effect of Aging on Economic Growth in the Age of Automation. American Economic Review, 107(5), 174–179. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.p20171101

Acemoglu, D., & Restrepo, P. (2018). The Race between Man and Machine: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares, and Employment. American Economic Review, 108(6), 1488–1542. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20160696

Acemoglu, D., & Restrepo, P. (2019). Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 33(2), 3–30. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.33.2.3

Acemoglu, D., & Restrepo, P. (2020). Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets. Journal of Political Economy, 128(6), 2188–2244. https://doi.org/10.1086/705716

Agrawal, A., Gans, J. S., & Goldfarb, A. (2019). Artificial Intelligence: The Ambiguous Labor Market Impact of Automating Prediction. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 33(2), 31–50. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.33.2.31

Alon, I., Anderson, J., Munim, Z. H., & Ho, A. (2018). A review of the internationalization of Chinese enterprises. Asia Pacific Journal of Management, 35(3), 573–605. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10490-018-9597-5

Arntz, M., Gregory, T., & Zierahn, U. (2017). Revisiting the risk of automation. Economics Letters, 159, 157–160. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2017.07.001

Arntz, M., Gregory, T., & Zierahn, U. (2016). The risk of automation for jobs in OECD countries: A comparative analysis.

Autor, D. (2022). The labor market impacts of technological change: From unbridled enthusiasm to qualified optimism to vast uncertainty. National Bureau of Economic Research.

Autor, D. H. (2015). Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 29(3), 3–30. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.29.3.3

Autor, D. H., & Dorn, D. (2013). The Growth of Low-Skill Service Jobs and the Polarization of the US Labor Market. American Economic Review, 103(5), 1553–1597. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.103.5.1553

Autor, D. H., Katz, L. F., & Kearney, M. S. (2006). The Polarization of the U.S. Labor Market. 96(2).

Autor, D. H., Levy, F., & Murnane, R. J. (2003). The skill content of recent technological change: An empirical exploration. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118(4), 1279–1333.

Bertani, F., Raberto, M., & Teglio, A. (2020). The productivity and unemployment effects of the digital transformation: An empirical and modeling assessment. Review of Evolutionary Political Economy, 1(3), 329–355. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43253-020-00022-3

Bogliacino, F., & Pianta, M. (2010). Innovation and Employment: A Reinvestigation using Revised Pavitt classes. Research Policy, 39(6), 799–809. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2010.02.017

Bogliacino, F., Piva, M., & Vivarelli, M. (2012). R&D and employment: An application of the LSDVC estimator using European microdata. Economics Letters, 116(1), 56–59. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2012.01.010

Calvino, F., & Virgillito, M. E. (2018). THE INNOVATION‐EMPLOYMENT NEXUS: A CRITICAL SURVEY OF THEORY AND EMPIRICS. Journal of Economic Surveys, 32(1), 83–117. https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12190

Erboz, G. (2017). How to Define Industry 4.0: The Main Pillars Of Industry 4.0.

Frey, C. B., & Osborne, M. A. (2017). The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerization? Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 114, 254–280. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.08.019

Gaur, A., & Kumar, M. (2018). A systematic approach to conducting review studies: An assessment of content analysis in 25 years of IB research. Journal of World Business, 53(2), 280–289.

Goos, M., & Manning, A. (2007). Lousy and Lovely Jobs: The Rising Polarization of Work in Britain. Review of Economics and Statistics, 89(1), 118–133. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest.89.1.118

Goos, M., Manning, A., & Salomons, A. (2014). Explaining Job Polarization: Routine-Biased Technological Change and Offshoring. American Economic Review, 104(8), 2509–2526. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.104.8.2509

Graetz, G., & Michaels, G. (2018). Robots at Work. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 100(5), 753–768. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00754

Hall, P. A. (2001). ORGANIZED MARKET ECONOMIES AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN EUROPE: IS IT FINALLY TIME TO ACCEPT LIBERAL ORTHODOXY? In N. Bermeo (Ed.), Unemployment in the New Europe (1st ed., pp. 52–86). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511664151.003

Harrison, R., Jaumandreu, J., Mairesse, J., & Peters, B. (2014). Does innovation stimulate employment? A firm-level analysis using comparable micro-data from four European countries. International Journal of Industrial Organization, 35, 29–43. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2014.06.001

Kerin, M., & Pham, D. T. (2019). A review of emerging industry 4.0 technologies in remanufacturing. Journal of Cleaner Production, 237, 117805. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.117805

Khan, M., Wu, X., Xu, X., & Dou, W. (2017). Big data challenges and opportunities in the hype of Industry 4.0. 2017 IEEE International Conference on Communications (ICC), 1–6. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICC.2017.7996801

Kurt, R. (2019). Industry 4.0 in Terms of Industrial Relations and Its Impacts on Labour Life. Procedia Computer Science, 158, 590–601. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2019.09.093

Lachenmaier, S., & Rottmann, H. (2011). Effects of innovation on employment: A dynamic panel analysis. International Journal of Industrial Organization, 29(2), 210–220. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2010.05.004

Lasi, H., Fettke, P., Kemper, H.-G., Feld, T., & Hoffmann, M. (2014). Industry 4.0. Business & Information Systems Engineering, 6(4), 239–242. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12599-014-0334-4

Li, J.-Q., Yu, F. R., Deng, G., Luo, C., Ming, Z., & Yan, Q. (2017). Industrial Internet: A Survey on the Enabling Technologies, Applications, and Challenges. IEEE Communications Surveys & Tutorials, 19(3), 1504–1526. https://doi.org/10.1109/COMST.2017.2691349

Liboni, L. B., Cezarino, L. O., Jabbour, C. J. C., Oliveira, B. G., & Stefanelli, N. O. (2019). Smart industry and the pathways to HRM 4.0: Implications for SCM. Supply Chain Management: An International Journal, 24(1), 124–146. https://doi.org/10.1108/SCM-03-2018-0150

Lima, Y., Barbosa, C. E., Dos Santos, H. S., & De Souza, J. M. (2021). Understanding Technological Unemployment: A Review of Causes, Consequences, and Solutions. Societies, 11(2), 50. https://doi.org/10.3390/soc11020050

McGuinness, S., Pouliakas, K., & Redmond, P. (2023). Skills-displacing technological change and its impact on jobs: Challenging technological alarmism? Economics of Innovation and New Technology, 32(3), 370–392. https://doi.org/10.1080/10438599.2021.1919517

Mokyr, J., Vickers, C., & Ziebarth, N. L. (2015). The History of Technological Anxiety and the Future of Economic Growth: Is This Time Different? Journal of Economic Perspectives, 29(3), 31–50. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.29.3.31

Noyons, E. (2001). Bibliometric mapping of science in a policy context. Scientometrics, 50, 83–98.

Öztürk, O., Kocaman, R., & Kanbach, D. K. (2024). How to design bibliometric research: An overview and a framework proposal. Review of Managerial Science. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11846-024-00738-0

Pasadeos, Y., Phelps, J., & Kim, B.-H. (1998). Disciplinary impact of advertising scholars: Temporal comparisons of influential authors, works and research networks. Journal of Advertising, 27(4), 53–70.

Postel‐Vinay, F. (2002). The Dynamics of Technological Unemployment*. International Economic Review, 43(3), 737–760. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-2354.t01-1-00033

Pouliakas, K. (2018). Automation risk in the EU labour market A skill-needs approach.

Shoss, M. K. (2017). Job Insecurity: An Integrative Review and Agenda for Future Research. Journal of Management, 43(6), 1911–1939. https://doi.org/10.1177/0149206317691574

Sima, V., Gheorghe, I. G., Subić, J., & Nancu, D. (2020). Influences of the Industry 4.0 Revolution on the Human Capital Development and Consumer Behavior: A Systematic Review. Sustainability, 12(10), 4035. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12104035

Sony, M., & Naik, S. (2019). Key ingredients for evaluating Industry 4.0 readiness for organizations: A literature review. Benchmarking: An International Journal, 27(7), 2213–2232. https://doi.org/10.1108/BIJ-09-2018-0284

Spencer, D. A. (2018). Fear and hope in an age of mass automation: Debating the future of work. New Technology, Work and Employment, 33(1), 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1111/ntwe.12105

Spitz‐Oener, A. (2006). Technical Change, Job Tasks, and Rising Educational Demands: Looking Outside the Wage Structure. Journal of Labor Economics, 24(2), 235–270. https://doi.org/10.1086/499972

Stachová, K., Papula, J., Stacho, Z., & Kohnová, L. (2019). External Partnerships in Employee Education and Development as the Key to Facing Industry 4.0 Challenges. Sustainability, 11(2), 345. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11020345

Strandhagen, J. O., Vallandingham, L. R., Fragapane, G., Strandhagen, J. W., Stangeland, A. B. H., & Sharma, N. (2017). Logistics 4.0 and emerging sustainable business models. Advances in Manufacturing, 5, 359–369.

Szabó-Szentgróti, G., Végvári, B., & Varga, J. (2021). Impact of Industry 4.0 and Digitization on Labor Market for 2030-Verification of Keynes’ Prediction. Sustainability, 13(14), 7703. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13147703

Van Reenen, J. (1997). Employment and Technological Innovation: Evidence from U.K. Manufacturing Firms. Journal of Labor Economics, 15(2), 255–284. https://doi.org/10.1086/209833

Vivarelli, M. (2014). Innovation, Employment and Skills in Advanced and Developing Countries: A Survey of Economic Literature. Journal of Economic Issues, 48(1), 123–154. https://doi.org/10.2753/JEI0021-3624480106

Zemtsov, S. (2020). New technologies, potential unemployment, and the ‘nescience economy’ during and after the 2020 economic crisis. Regional Science Policy & Practice, 12(4), 723–743. https://doi.org/10.1111/rsp3.12286

Zezulka, F., Marcon, P., Vesely, I., & Sajdl, O. (2016). Industry 4.0 – An Introduction to the Phenomenon. IFAC-PapersOnLine, 49(25), 8–12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ifacol.2016.12.002

Downloads

Publicado

2025-02-11

Como Citar

Cherif, S., & Gourida, S. (2025). Technological unemployment in terms of global labor market imbalances: bibliometric analysis. Brazilian Journal of Business, 7(1), e77477. https://doi.org/10.34140/bjbv7n1-039

Edição

Seção

Artigos