Previsão do número diário de pessoas diagnosticadas com COVID-19 no Estado do Paraná via modelos autorregressivos de defasagens distribuídas / Predicting the daily number of people diagnosed with COVID-19 in the State of Paraná via autoregressive models with distributed lags
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.34117/bjdv8n2-132Keywords:
Séries temporais, Modelos autorregressivos de defasagens distribuídas, Coronavírus, Número reprodutivo efetivo.Abstract
Os casos de COVID-19, no Paraná, têm sido registrados desde o mês de março de 2020 o Paraná. A velocidade da propagação da doença muda frequentemente, o que desafia as previsões do número de infectados ao longo do tempo. Neste sentido, o uso de métodos os estatísticos podem auxiliar na avaliação da evolução e nas projeções da propagação da doença. Este estudo, objetivou realizar a modelagem e previsão do número de casos novos diários de COVID-19, no Estado do Paraná, por meio dos modelos autorregressivos de defasagens distribuídas, considerando o atraso na divulgação dos casos novos, dos casos em investigação e a taxa de transmissão. Os resultados indicaram que o modelo ajustado foi capaz de prever o número de casos novos diário da doença, com boa precisão para 14 dias.
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